Energy Efficient Lighting for Commercial Markets

For more than 130 years, the world has relied on variations of incandescent and gas-discharge lamps to illuminate commercial buildings. With the rise of the general-illumination white LED lighting only a few years ago, the lighting industry is experiencing its first revolutionary change since the commercialization of the fluorescent lamp in the 1930s.

As the semiconductor and software industries converge on the traditional lighting world, Pike Research expects that the lighting industry will see more change in the next five years than in the previous 50. By the end of our 10-year outlook, LED solid state lighting will not only capture over 50% of the global market, but the extraordinary lifetimes of these lamps will drive a steady decline in the commercial lamp market despite a steadily growing base of new buildings and access to electricity in emerging countries.

Today's market includes a flurry of start-ups and global giants spending the vast majority of their development resources on putting the LED payback period on par with that of fluorescent. Not only are LED costs projected to decline rapidly, but each year those projections are accelerated; an indication that the rate of change continues to be underestimated.

But for at least the next several years, LEDs are out of reach for the general illumination market and are seeing early success in niche markets and applications. For the mass energy efficiency market, the most influential market drivers are energy codes, rebates and incentives, all of which raise the minimum standards and effectively pare out the least efficient - such as incandescent lamps.

On the cutting edge of efficiency, certifications such as the USGBC's LEED, publicly funded projects, and those supported by conservationists are raising the bar on high standards and pulling energy code requirements up in the process.

This Pike Research report describes the key factors that are influencing the market for energy efficient lighting around the world: trends in energy codes, rebate and subsidy programs, sustainability/green certifications, raw material supply issues, geopolitical influences in developing and developed nations, and more.

The report describes the influence of industry structure, key applications, and the many technology issues involved in the decision to specify various lighting technologies. Comprehensive unit and dollar forecasts are presented through 2021, segmented by application, lamp type/LED, luminaires, and geographic region.