DOE estimates energy-saving potential of LEDs in general lighting through 2030

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has released an update of its report that forecasts the energy-savings potential of solid-state lighting (SSL) compared with conventional white-light sources. The 2012 update entitled "Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Application," compares the annual lighting energy consumption in the US with and without market penetration of LED lighting beyond current levels.

The cumulative energy-savings potential from the predicted LED market penetration over the 2010-2030 study period is 2700 TWh, a savings of $250 billion at today's energy prices or the equivalent of 1800 million metric tons of carbon. This is in comparison to the 1800 TWh of savings estimated in the 2010 report of energy-savings potential. However, several significant changes were made to the study's methodology and assumptions for the latest report, which are discussed below.

The forecast predicts that by 2020, LED lamps and luminaires will have primarily penetrated the commercial and outdoor stationary applications. Proliferation into residential, industrial, commercial and outdoor stationary markets will occur in the 2020-2030 timeframe.

The forecast projects LED lamp and luminaire sales measured in lumen-hours. The analysis indicates that LED lighting in general illumination applications has the potential to represent 36% of sales measured in lumen-hours on the general illumination market by 2020 and 74% of sales by 2030.

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US consumed 694 TWh of site electricity in 2010 on lighting - approximately 18% of all electricity used. The model demonstrates the total energy consumption for lighting could be reduced by 19% by 2020 and by 46% by 2030 relative to a scenario with no additional LED lamps or luminaires beyond what is installed today.

By 2030, the annual energy savings from market penetration of LEDs will be approximately 297 TWh, enough electricity to power 24 million homes. At current energy prices, that equates to $30 billion in savings in the year 2030. Assuming the same mix of power stations, these savings, according to the report, would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 210 million metric tons of carbon in 2030.

The DOE has published this report four times, in 2001, 2003, 2006 and 2010. Several important changes to the 2010 methodology have been implemented. First, the 2010 baseline data now uses the DOE's recently published 2010 US Lighting Market Characterization  inventory report. That report showed that 67 million LED lamps and luminaires were installed in the US in 2010, accounting for 0.8% of the total.

Secondly, the energy-savings report only considers LED technology and not OLEDs, due to the speculative nature of efficacy projections and price forecasts for OLED luminaires. All energy savings are assumed to be due to LED technology and its improvements.

The model includes lighting in residential, commercial, industrial and outdoor stationary applications. The previous reports then grouped lamps by high- and low-CRI application. Now the lamps are grouped by submarket in which different technologies compete, including five categories: general service lamps (medium screw base), reflector lamps (screw base), HID, linear fluorescent and miscellaneous.